Tuesday, January 05, 2010

Insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results

Fun fact: people tend to stick to their guns when things go awry. If you miss a deadline, just work more hours. (and burnout) If your car is too slow, drive faster. (and spin out) If you keep losing on the race track, just keep on betting on the next race. (and go broke)

This is based on the assumption that people get better with experience, or that luck - so to speak - evens out over time. This is a delusion. Sometimes people stay as dumb as they are, no matter how much time and effort they spend. And good or bad luck is not quantifiable, so there's nothing to even out in the first place. If you haven't won a big lottery prize now, the next ticket you buy is just as unlikely to win you one, as the last one.

Sometimes a radical change is necessary to make progress, maybe augmented with some creativity. If you always miss deadlines in your plan, use a different model of planning; if your car is too slow, use the train; and stop betting on horses, go play fantasy football.

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