Sports leagues like the NFL and NBA started as mere pastimes, without competitive foundation; as a sport matures, competition becomes a bigger driver to play, over recreation. Further maturing sees organization enter the sport to regulate competition; later on monetary incentives are increased (e.g. prize money; appearance fees), drawing attention from people outside the sport, the spectators. If the attention becomes big enough, if the exposure is intense enough, spectators will become addicts to the sport in question.
What the leagues are hoping for, is that they are too big to fail, or more accurately too important to ignore. The leagues and owners behave on the premise, that the public will simply have to accept there not being a season this year, because the public crave NBA/NFL so much, any season that does get played afterwards, is immediately flocked to. Both leagues would be acting rather differently, if their fans do not come back when the lockout ends, because they have found something else to do. It is the risk these leagues take, if they prove to overestimate their value.
It is not an unrealistic view. All the public sees, is multi-millionaires bickering with multi-millionaires about billions of dollars, which 99 percent of the fans will never see in their lifetimes. Also most people will have limited money available for frivolous consumption (such as visiting a sports event), especially in this unstable economy.
But the NFL lockout is here, so obviously BOTH the NFL players and the NFL owners think they can actually get away with it. All the while the media is crying foul, pointing to disappointed fans, and troubled businesses. The NFL have facts on their side; revenues in the league have never been higher than the last three years. Demand for the NFL product definitely exists.
So currently the fans have little to work with but hope. Rich people fighting over money is not something the average fan can influence, unless he is willing to take drastic measures, such as going cold turkey, go into rehab or find something worse. My guess is, and I suppose it's the NFL's as well, the average fan is not able to. Just like people coming back (to some degree) to NHL after their lockout in 2005, the expectation is that people will come back to NFL after this lockout.
The NFL is a bit like a beautiful woman, who knows all too well she is. No matter what terrible things she does, you'll always loop back around to see her. And here, she will not put out. And there will be no season. Just because she can. Just because THEY can.
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