Tuesday, August 07, 2012

The worst predictor for success

Pretty much every piece of good advice about achieving success is set on putting the work in. And lots of it actually. It’s the motto of Team Bring It. Blood, sweat and tears. “They Sleep, We Grind”.

In their post-win interviews, winners may talk about paying off hard work. Everything they worked for, all the sacrifices they made, it all paid off with a victory.


The thing is, there is no 100% certainty that the losers have not worked as hard as the winners. Sometimes the people who lose have even worked harder, worked longer, worked more, than the winners. But other factors also come to play in deciding who wins and who loses. Pure natural skill. Gamesmanship. Luck of the draw. Circumstances. Of course there are losses caused by lack of work, effort and preparation - but definitely not all losses can be explained this way.

The fact is: when there are winners, there are also losers. And the vast majority in a competition will be a loser, no matter how many silver and bronze medals you ship. I’m not advocating everybody should be lazy instead. I'm sure there’s less correlation between losing and working hard opposed to winning and working hard. It’s just that working hard is a bad predictor for future success. Not all efforts will be paid off.

Striving to achieve your goals and win through hard work is not a bad motto, it’s a safe, admirable motto. It’s something we respect and understand. Maybe going so far as saying hard work is a prerequisite in winning in sports, and in life

But it is not the key success factor. And frankly it’s a bit disconcerting motivational speakers just keep saying the mantra over and over. “Work hard. Work harder. Work hardest.”. I’m sure you should not get caught in an excuse that you lost because you didn’t work your hardest or even the hardest. But working hardest is no guarantee. Like all investments, sometimes it just doesn’t pay off - and you need to be okay with that.

If you lose, you are allowed to get disappointed, even show a little frustration. But you better get over it. Stop feeling sorry for yourself. Stop blaming others. Learn and deal.


People say winners never accept “this losing thing”. But even the most successful people will attest: they have lost far more times than they won. But when they won, it was glorious. And when they lost, it was glorious as well. Another opportunity to learn and deal.

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